Had Erickson as a professor at CSC - the English language expert on the Turkish military. Also looked very closely at Kemal's force employment at Gallipoli in SAW; his handling of reserves represents proper defense and depth and is a great case study on how to maintain freedom of action in the face of a rapidly changing situation.
I'm starting to shift to an expectation that an actual invasion won't be the primary reunification tactic. After watching recent global events in Europe and the Middle East I'm starting to think the Chinese will instead opt for a blockade of Taiwan. If they can strangle RoC (and bring economic crises to the rest of the world) they can simply sue for a political settlement in their favor - something like Hong Kong. It will also give them the flexibility to respond to any American intervention short of war with the US while also giving them clarity if there will even be an American response other than a strongly worded letter at the UN. PLAN can certainly control shipping around the island, so it's just a matter of whether the PLAAF can keep air traffic at or near zero. Then the clock starts running...
Although there is also the possibility that Xi will take Putin and Ukraine as a cautionary tale, especially if Taiwan forges military technology links with Ukraine. Ukraine’s ability to sink Russian warships with comparatively cheap drones may give Xi and the PLA pause in contemplating invasion - it can even make a naval blockade appear more risky,
Had Erickson as a professor at CSC - the English language expert on the Turkish military. Also looked very closely at Kemal's force employment at Gallipoli in SAW; his handling of reserves represents proper defense and depth and is a great case study on how to maintain freedom of action in the face of a rapidly changing situation.
I'm starting to shift to an expectation that an actual invasion won't be the primary reunification tactic. After watching recent global events in Europe and the Middle East I'm starting to think the Chinese will instead opt for a blockade of Taiwan. If they can strangle RoC (and bring economic crises to the rest of the world) they can simply sue for a political settlement in their favor - something like Hong Kong. It will also give them the flexibility to respond to any American intervention short of war with the US while also giving them clarity if there will even be an American response other than a strongly worded letter at the UN. PLAN can certainly control shipping around the island, so it's just a matter of whether the PLAAF can keep air traffic at or near zero. Then the clock starts running...
A blockade style thing is the smarter move, but there’s always the possibility that Xi talks himself into rolling the dice as he gets older.
Although there is also the possibility that Xi will take Putin and Ukraine as a cautionary tale, especially if Taiwan forges military technology links with Ukraine. Ukraine’s ability to sink Russian warships with comparatively cheap drones may give Xi and the PLA pause in contemplating invasion - it can even make a naval blockade appear more risky,
Excellent analysis and application of lessons learned to a potential PLA invasion of Taiwan.