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Michael Hyatt's avatar

I'm starting to shift to an expectation that an actual invasion won't be the primary reunification tactic. After watching recent global events in Europe and the Middle East I'm starting to think the Chinese will instead opt for a blockade of Taiwan. If they can strangle RoC (and bring economic crises to the rest of the world) they can simply sue for a political settlement in their favor - something like Hong Kong. It will also give them the flexibility to respond to any American intervention short of war with the US while also giving them clarity if there will even be an American response other than a strongly worded letter at the UN. PLAN can certainly control shipping around the island, so it's just a matter of whether the PLAAF can keep air traffic at or near zero. Then the clock starts running...

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